Research Papers

Descriptive severity modeling of traffic accidents on rural roads in Iran

Version 1
Date added June 6, 2010
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Category 2010 CMRSC XX Niagara
Tags Session 2C
Author/Auteur Somaye Fakharian, Kiarash Motamedi


The statistics demonstrate that the severity of accidents is more important at early hours of morning and late ones at night despite the lower traffic volume. Natural rhythm of human being and changes in traffic flow parameters are probable reasons for this phenomenon. Studies have reported that physiological reactions of human body are not consistent all over a day and locate at the lowest level in the first hours of morning, which cause to increase the driver's drowsiness and fatigue and therefore increase the possibility of crash occurrence. On the other side, recent researches show that crash severity changes in different hours of a day are mainly affected by traffic flow parameters. The statistics of 27000 dead and 100000 injuries per year in Iran which is among vulnerable countries in the case of road accidents, demands an accurate investigations to discover accident causes and their impact in order to decrease the number. In this research, with the use of Logit Models and according to traffic flow parameters and crash occurrence time, descriptive models for traffic crash severity in 10 eventful rural roads are presented. Finally, the role of crash occurrence time beside the other effective parameters on each model is evaluated and the most probable hours for traffic crash occurrence are predicted.

Somaye Fakharian and Kiarash Motamedi