Research Papers

Bayesian Modeling Approach for Cyclist Injury Risk: Comparison of Signalized and Non-Signalized Intersections

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Filesize 434 KB
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Date added May 26, 2013
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Category 2013 CMRSC XXIII Montréal
Tags Session 3B, Student Paper Award Winner
Author/Auteur Jillian Strauss, Luis F. Miranda-Moreno, Patrick Morency
Award/Prix Étudiant 2 Student

Second Place Winner

Abstract

Cycling as a mode of travel is becoming increasing popular in urban areas like Montreal, Canada. With these increasing flows also come rising concerns for cyclist safety, especially at intersections, where almost 60% of cyclist injuries occur. This study proposes a two-equation Bayesian modeling approach to simultaneously study cyclist injury occurrence and bicycle activity at signalized intersections as joint outcomes and deals with the potential presence of endogeneity and unobserved heterogeneities. This study used an extensive inventory of a large sample of intersections containing disaggregate vehicular traffic volumes and bicycle flows as well as traffic control, geometric design and built environment characteristics in the vicinity of the intersections. Results confirm and quantify the effect of both bicycle and motor-vehicle flows on cyclist injury occurrence and further emphasize the importance of turning motor-vehicle movements at signalized intersections. At signalized intersections, the presence of bus stops and large total crosswalk lengths were found to increase cyclist injury occurrence whereas the presence of a raised median has the opposite effect. Bicycle activity through intersections increases with increasing employment, number of metro stations, land use mix, area of commercial land use type, length of bicycle facilities and the presence of schools within 50 to 800 metres of the intersection. Intersections with three approaches are expected to have fewer cyclists than those with four. Preliminary results for non-signalized intersections identified that, in addition to bicycle and traffic flows, cyclist injury occurrence is expected to increase as the number of lanes of traffic entering the intersection increases.

Jillian Strauss
Jillian Strauss accepts the second place prize.